MIKE

Posts Tagged ‘precious metals’

by Adam Taggart
November 10, 2011, 10:14 pm
ChrisMartenson.com

Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.

But there’s one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.

For him, it’s a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.

As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world’s current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.

In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.

In fact, it’s precisely due to this manipulation that Turd is able to predict short-term price movements in gold and silver as confidently as he does:

Believe me, if you looked at my trading account and looked at my success in trading corn, or soybeans, or crude, or something like that: I make choices just as badly as the average guy.  The reason why I am successful in forecasting gold and silver is because they are manipulated.

Because once you understand that the bullion banks, particularly JPMorgan in silver, are in there trying to stack the deck in their favor, then you use some simple technical analysis.  And you begin to see where they’re going to act, where they’re going to place some sell orders to try to start cascading waterfall selling by tripping stocks.  It’s not real hard.  I mean, its pretty basic stuff.  But once you admit to yourself that if this does take place, it makes forecasting where price is going pretty easy…

We see this quite often where the prices of gold and silver – they decline rather sharply after hours, after COMEX trading hours, on the Globex because volume is so thin there.  A little bit of money thrown at the market – any new paper shorts can have a rather dramatic impact…

And that is where the manipulation has a lasting impact.  And you can’t get that money back… And it takes a whole bunch of new buy orders, a whole bunch of new speculative longs and commercial longs to come in and bid it back up to where it was before that raid. And so, they’re always going to be in there.  Again, I guess the ultimate question is at who’s behest are they doing this?  But, nonetheless, they’re in there controlling price, managing the assent, if you will, to create this illusion that there’s still confidence in the dollar, that all is well.  And that it’s okay to go buy a new car.

Turd sees the precious metals as a true barometer of the dollar’s devaluation as the Fed pursues its policy of negative real interest rates — which is challenging for the average consumer to see, when the dollar may strengthen on a relative basis versus other fiat currencies and the government-published CPI is artificially low. In his opinion, the government is well aware of the signaling function of the PMs, and therefore feels it needs to manage their ascent in as drawn-out and orderly a process possible in order to prevent the frogs in the pot (i.e., the citizenry) from noticing that the water is getting a lot hotter.

The important mission here, in Turd’s mind, is to realize that the economic reality we have come to accept as “normal” is over, and to take protective action. And once you have done so, to try to help those around you wake up to that fact — a major challenge, as most people don’t want to think about it, and the entrenched status quo powers are aggressively marketing that ‘return to normalcy’ is just around the corner:

The last thing I would add to that, Chris, and one that’s challenging, and I’m sure you’ve seen this too in working with your subscribers is where we are headed is unlike anywhere where we’ve been, at least in recent memory. I mean, there may be some octogenarians out there that remember what it was like before the Great Depression and during the Great Depression and before World War II. But it’s a world like that where we’re headed to.

All I’ve ever known, all my friends and family, even my parents really have ever known is this hegemonic United States that was the world power, and provided the world’s reserve currency.  And we could print as much as we wanted to, and then export the inflation to all the other poor staff that had to – took our dollar.  And so we bought their cheap stuff.  And those days are over, and it’s a really hard concept.

If you haven’t had personal experience with something else, it’s a really hard concept to get your arms around.  That the United States isn’t going to be this huge economic and military superpower.  Just because it always has been doesn’t mean that it always will be.  And as we talked about, the numbers and the fundamentals suggest that it’s not always going to be.

And so you got to kind of prepare yourself that tomorrow’s not going to be like today, that we’re in a new paradigm.  And try to intellectually figure out, okay, how do I survive and prosper in this new world knowing that it’s coming?  And that’s what we try to do. I know that’s what you try to do.  And it’s our job, Chris, to try and help as many as we can.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Turd Ferguson (runtime 47m:19s):

 

Read the entire article HERE.

by Tyler Durden
07/26/2011 18:01 -0400
ZeroHedge

Morgan Stanley has released its comprehensive quarterly metals outlook update for Q3, which while traditionally furiously wrong in its price targets for the assorted metals under consideration, represents one of the best reference materials for the underlying fundamentals behind each hard asset including base and precious metals, steel and bulk commodities, mined energy, rare earths, even such arcania as zircon and titanium dioxide. We suggest readers avoid the conclusion by Morgan Stanley which ultimately will be based on the firm’s prop trading bias, and instead focus on the key supply/demand mechanics in any given product. For the sake of reference, we break down MS’ outlook on gold, silver due to the special place these hold in the modern geo-political and voodoo economic discussions.

Gold

Investment demand is strengthening again…

• Identified and implied investment has become the main driver of demand in the gold market over the past decade and has become essential to absorb the fundamental surplus resulting from mine production, secondary supply, any net sales from central banks and producer hedging, and the long-term decline in jewellery fabrication demand.
• As the transparency of reporting of bar hoarding demand has increased along with the growth in physically backed ETF demand, the depth and structure of the physical investment market has become more visible. In our view, assessing the sustainability of this investment flow has become critical to the gold price outlook.
• According to GFMS, total identifiable investment demand for gold reached a record 1,514t in 2011, or 1,675t if implied investment demand is included, for a new annual record of US$66bn.
• More dramatic growth in investment demand for gold can be pinpointed to 2008-09 and the global financial crisis, which raised serious concerns about a debt deflationary spiral and the long-term purchasing power of the world’s major fiat currencies, especially the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

…as sovereign debt concerns highlight fiat currency risks

• More recently, a sharp rise in inflationary pressures partially driven by a surge in oil prices since February 2011 and the growing risk of sovereign debt default in peripheral countries of the Eurozone have given added impetus to investment demand growth as the fear of sovereign debt contagion has also raised questions over the long-term future of the euro.
• Even more recently, the impending threat of technical default by the US government if the government debt ceiling is breached, and the associated risk of a sovereign debt rating downgrade if a satisfactory long-term debt reduction program is not established have added to investor concerns about the long-term outlook for US treasuries and “risk-free assets.”
• In these circumstances, we expect the long-running bull market in gold will receive further impetus, even if there is no return to QE in the US. However, QE3 is a potential further upside risk to prices in the current environment.
• A further illustration of the growing quasi-monetary role of gold in the current global financial environment has been the persistent trend in official sector sales from net selling to net buying, a trend that we expect to continue, especially now that the sale of the IMF gold tranche has been completed.
• We have increased our annual gold price forecasts by 8%, 22% and 24% for 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively to US$1,511/oz, US$1,624/0z and US$1,550/oz.

Global supply / demand

Silver

May 2011 correction has reduced risks of demand destruction…

• As GFMS observed in the 2011 World Silver Survey published for the Silver Institute, silver’s “hybrid” precious and industrial nature leads to links with gold, copper, and the CRB index, which can vary greatly.
• In the course of 2011, silver’s precious metal status and therefore its links with gold have been strongly reinforced by investors’ preference to hedge systemic financial risk, rising inflationary pressures, and resurgent political risk in MENA through a cheaper vehicle with characteristics similar to gold as a store of value.
• Driven by a spectacular rally between late March and May led by retail investors, the gold:silver ratio narrowed sharply, reaching its lowest point since October 1980 in early May 2011 at 30:1.
• Closing prices for silver at the peak of the rally in late April 2011 at US$48.70/oz came within 1.5% of the all time high established in January 1980 during the Hunt brothers’ squeeze. Successive increases in the Comex margin requirements then saw prices trade between US$33 and US$36/oz and the gold:silver ratio stabilize around 40 to 44:1.

…helping sustain investment demand going into 2012

• In our view, the 2,000t outflow of silver from ETF funds that has followed this correction is likely to be temporary, as all of the drivers for the initial 3,500t surge in ETF inflows between September 2010 and late April 2011 are still in place.
• Furthermore, the lower trading range for prices since the crash in early May should be an incentive for investors to return to the physical investment market now that the impact of the violent correction has largely been discounted.
• Investor sentiment should also be encouraged by evidence of strongly rising fabrication demand, especially in the brazing alloy/solder and jewellery markets, which are forecast to grow by 8.2% and 3.7%, respectively, in 2011.
• As a result, we have made significant upgrades to prices throughout the forecast period. For 2011, we now expect an average price of US$36.21/oz, up 15% from our previous forecast, and in 2012 we see prices averaging US$36.90/oz, 30% higher than our previous estimate.
• For 2013, we have raised our forecast 32% to US$32.98/oz.

Global supply / demand

MS Q3 Metals

 

 

MS Q3 Metals

Read the entire article HERE.

by Agustino Fontevecchia
Jul. 13 2011 – 11:26 am
FORBES

Chairman Ben Bernanke faced-off with Fed-hating Representative Ron Paul during his monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday. The head of the Fed was forced to respond to accusations of enriching already rich corporations while failing to help Main Street, while he was pushed on his views on gold. When asked whether gold is money, Bernanke flatly responded “No.” (See video below).

While most of Bernanke’s reports to Congress serve politicians to pursue their own agendas by gearing the Chairman towards their issues, with Republican Rep. Bacchus talking of the unsustainability of Medicaid and Rep. Frank (D, Mass.) asking about the need to raise the debt limit without cutting spending, it was a stand-off between Bernanke and Ron Paul that took all the attention. (Read Apocalyptic Bernanke: Raise The Debt Ceiling Or Else).

Rep. Ron Paul, Republican for Texas, asked Bernanke why a capital injection of more than $5 trillion “hasn’t done much” to help the consumer, who makes up about two-thirds of GDP in the U.S., and prop up the economy, while it helped boost corporate profits. “You could’ve given $17,000 to each citizen,” Ron Paul claimed.

Gallery: The Five Stages of Greece’s Financial Woes

Bernanke, clearly on the defensive, told Rep. Ron Paul that his institution hadn’t spent a single dollar, rather, the Fed has been a “profit center” according to the Chairman, returning profits to the federal government. As Bernanke began to sermon Rep. Paul on the history of the Fed (“we are here to provide liquidity [in abnormal situations],” the Chairman said), he was interrupted.

“When you wake up in the morning, do you think about the price of gold,” Rep. Paul asked. After pausing for a second, Bernanke responded, clearly uncomfortable. that he paid much attention to the price of gold, only to be interrupted once again.

“Gold’s at about $1,580 [an ounce] this morning, what do you think of the price of gold?” asked Rep. Paul. A stern-faced Bernanke responded people bought it for protection and was once again cut-off, with Ron Paul once again on the offensive.

“Is gold money?” he asked. Clearly bothered, Bernanke told the representative, “No. It’s a precious metal.”

After Paul interrupted him to note the long history of gold being used as money, Bernanke continued,”It’s an asset. Would you say Treasury bills are money? I don’t think they’re money either but they’re a financial asset.”

“Is gold money?” he asked. Clearly bothered, Bernanke told the representative “no, gold is not money, it’s an asset. Treasuries are an asset, people hold them, but I don’t think of them as money,” said Bernanke.

Rep. Ron Paul again jumped in, noting the long history of gold being used as money, and then asked Bernanke why people didn’t hold diamonds, clearly hinting at his fiat money criticism of the U.S. monetary system. The Fed Chairman told Rep. Paul it was nothing more than tradition, and, as he was attempting to develop his argument, Rep. Ron Paul quickly asked the acting authority of the House of Representative’s Committee on Financial Services, Rep. Bacchus, to excuse him for exceeding his time, as he returned the floor to the Committee. (Read Bernanke To Rep. Paul Ryan: QE2 Created 600,000 Jobs).

The interesting exchange served as one of the few times Bernanke has been publicly pushed off his comfort zone by an elected official. Rep. Ron Paul brought up the issues that he’s famous for, namely, a sort of allegiance between the Fed and the nation’s most powerful institutions, the illusion of fiat money, and the gold standard. Bernanke, angered and bothered, had no option but to respond. (Read Bernanke’s Contradiction: Minutes Reveal QE3 Talk And Exit Strategy).

Read the entire article HERE.

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge
06/21/2011 00:19 -0400

India’s heretofore “insatiable” appetite for precious metals will need to find a new adjective to describe it, after it surged by an absolutely unprecedented 500% in May MoM, and 222% compared to May of 2010, touching on a massive $8.96 billion in imports in the past month. Putting this number in perspective the yearly average Indian imports are about $22 billion: in one month the country will have imported about half its average quota for the year! And while inflation may have much to do with it, events like the Sensex flash crash from last night certainly are not helping matters:

“The gold story is puzzling” added financial analyst A S Kirolar. “Consumers are shying away from stocks and bonds and heading to safe assets like gold and real estate, but one cannot understand this given the meagre 12% growth in imports of petroleum and oil products.” Granted demand is not just at the retail level as ever more institutions are buying up gold: “Analysts maintained that India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to grant licenses to seven more banks to import bullion has helped push up demand. Karur Vysya Bank, State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur, State Bank of Hyderabad, Punjab and Sind Bank, South Indian Bank, State Bank of Mysore and State Bank of Travancore were added to the list. As of the start of 2011, some 30 banks in India have been granted permission to import gold and silver. Jewellers are getting easy supplies which is also helping push up demand. Moreover, the flow of scrap is also expected to fall from a yearly average of 200 tonnes, which could again boost imports, underlining the insatiable appetite of the Indian consumer.” Add ongoing Chinese demand for PMs, and one can see why calls for an imminent gold crash absent a global deflationary vortex are largely overblown.

Mineweb has more:

“Even as inflation and a widening trade deficit to $15 billion in May continues to weigh on the minds of Indian investors, the demand for fresh gold has continued to grow. This is very confusing, especially when one sees it against the backdrop of a 400% rise in the value of the rupee over the last decade,” said bullion analyst Anand Patnaik with a brokerage firm.

India’s commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma recently released trade figures. India’s imports have surged to a 4-year high at a scorching pace of 54% mainly due to rising oil prices and a surge in gold imports.

The country’s imports have jumped to $40.9 billion, which has resulted in the gap between imports and exports widening to $15 billion – a 67% increase which is the largest since August 2008, prompting the government authorities to caution that India’s trade deficit for 2011-12 could touch a record $145-150 billion.

Minister Sharma pointed out that exports of iron ore were down given the ban on exports imposed by the country. Imports in pearls and precious stones, however, have risen 24.6% to $ 5.20 billion, gold and silver by 222% to $ 13.5 billion and iron and steel by 13% to $ 1.80 billion, he said.

But the true cause of this endless demand is and always will be the threat of central bank hijacked purchasing power :

“People in India have accepted high inflation as a reality of life,” said Rajesh Shukla of the centre for Macro Consumer Research. Noting that Indians tend to use gold as a hedge against inflation, Shukla said this would be partly responsible for the spike in imports.

He added that high imports reflected a strong demand for the yellow metal, despite the weakening of the rupee.

The Indian rupee fell to its lowest in three weeks on Monday weighed down by losses in domestic shares and the euro, with dollar demand from oil companies also adding pressure.

“Bidding from oil companies is keeping the rupee lower. All of last week, the rupee depreciated. Hiking of key interest rates has further weakened the rupee,” said a forex dealer at a national bank.

And that’s merely the anchor for current gold prices at over $1500 even as stocks continue to sink. Once the Fed announced Operation Twist 2 either on Wednesday, or in one or two month’s time, the PM complex will explode, reaching $2000 in no time whatsoever.

Read the entire article HERE.

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge
06/18/2011 13:23 -0400

One small step toward Executive Order 6102 part 2, and one giant leap for corruptcongressmankind.

From: FOREX.com
Date: Fri, Jun 17, 2011 at 6:11 PM
Subject: Important Account Notice Re: Metals Trading
To: xxx

Important Account Notice Re: Metals Trading

We wanted to make you aware of some upcoming changes to FOREX.com’s product offering. As a result of the Dodd-Frank Act enacted by US Congress, a new regulation prohibiting US residents from trading over the counter precious metals, including gold and silver, will go into effect on Friday, July 15, 2011.

In conjunction with this new regulation, FOREX.com must discontinue metals trading for US residents on Friday, July 15, 2011 at the close of trading at 5pm ET. As a result, all open metals positions must be closed by July 15, 2011 at 5pm ET.

We encourage you to wind down your trading activity in these products over the next month in anticipation of the new rule, as any open XAU or XAG positions that remain open prior to July 15, 2011 at approximately 5:00 pm ET will be automatically liquidated.

We sincerely regret any inconvenience complying with the new U.S. regulation may cause you. Should you have any questions, please feel free to contact our customer service team.

Sincerely,
The Team at FOREX.com

So far we have only received this warning from Forex.com. We are waiting to see which other dealers inform their customers that trading gold and silver over the counter will soon be illegal.

It appears that Forex.com’s interpretation of the law stems primarily from Section 742(a) of the Dodd-Frank act which “prohibits any person [which again includes companies]from entering into, or offering to enter into, a transaction in any commodity with a person that is not an eligible contract participant or an eligible commercial entity, on a leveraged or margined basis.”

Some prehistory from Hedge Fund Law Blog:

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (“Act”) has changed a number of laws in all of the securities acts including the Commodity Exchange Act. Two specific changes deal with certain transactions in commodities on the spot market. Specifically, Section 742 of the Act deals with retail commodity transactions. In this section, the text of the Commodity Exchange Act is amended to include new Section 2(c)(2)(D) (dealing with retail commodity transactions) and new Section 2(c)(2)(E) (prohibiting trading in spot forex with retail investors unless the trader is subject to regulations by a Federal regulatory agency, i.e. CFTC, SEC, etc.). According to a congressional rulemaking spreadsheet, these are effective 180 days from the date of enactment.

We provide an overview of the new sections and have reprinted them in full below.

New CEA Section 2(c)(2)(D) – Concerning Spot Commodities (Metals)

The central import of new CEA Section 2(c)(2)(D) is to broaden the CFTC’s power with respect to retail commodity transactions. Essentially any spot commodities transaction (i.e. spot metals) will be subject to CFTC jurisdiction and rulemaking authority. There is an exemption for commodities which are actually delivered within 28 days. While the CFTC wanted an exemption in which commodities would need to be delivered within 2 days, various coin collectors were able to lobby congress for a longer delivery period (see here).

It is likely we will see the CFTC propose regulations under this new section and we will keep you updated on any regulatory pronouncements with respect to this new section.

New CEA Section 2(c)(2)(E) – Concerning Spot Forex

The central import of new CEA Section 2(c)(2)(E) is to regulate the spot forex markets. While the section requires the CFTC to finalize regulations with respect to spot forex (which were proposed earlier in January), it also, interestingly, provides oversight of the markets to other federal regulatory agencies such as the CFTC. This means that in the future, different market participants may be subject to different regulatory regimes with respect to trading in same underlying instruments. A Wall Street Journal article discusses the impact of this with respect to firms which engage in other activities in addition to retail forex transactions. The CFTC’s proposed rules establish certain compliance parameters for retail forex transactions, requires registration of retail forex managers and requires such managers to pass a new regulatory exam called the Series 34 exam. We do not yet know whether the other regulatory agencies will adopt rules similar to the CFTC or if they will write rules from scratch.

Next, from Henderson & Lyman:

The prohibition of Section 742(a) does not apply, however, if such a transaction results in actual delivery within 28 days, or creates an enforceable obligation to deliver between a seller and a buyer that have the ability to deliver, and accept delivery of, the commodity in connection with their lines of business. This may be problematic as in most spot metals trading virtually all contracts fail to meet these requirements. As a result, although the courts’ interpretation of Section 742(a) is unknown, Section 742(a) is likely to have a significantly negative impact on the OTC cash precious metals industry. Here too, it is essential that those who offer to be a counterparty to OTC metals transactions seek professional help to discuss possible operational and regulatory contingency plans.

The actual rule language exempts a transaction if it “results in actual delivery within 28 days or such other longer period as the Commission may determine by rule or regulation based upon the typical commercial practice in cash or spot markets for the commodity involved;” Alas, the commission has decided not to intervene and keep the exemption status window so small as to affect virtually all exchanges which transact in the gold and silver spot market.

More here:

Elimination of OTC Forex

Effective 90 days from its inception, the Dodd-Frank Act bans most retail OTC forex transactions. Section 742(c) of the Act states as follows:

…A person [which includes companies] shall not offer to, or enter into with, a person that is not an eligible contract participant, any agreement, contract, or transaction in foreign currency except pursuant to a rule or regulation of a Federal regulatory agency allowing the agreement, contract, or transaction under such terms and conditions as the Federal regulatory agency shall prescribe…

This provision will not come into effect, however, if the CFTC or another eligible federal body issues guidelines relating to the regulation of foreign currency within 90 days of its enactment. Registrants and the public are currently being encouraged by the CFTC to provide insight into how the Act should be enforced. See CFTC Rulemakings regarding OTC Derivatives located at the following website address, under Section XX – Foreign Currency (Retail Off Exchange). It is essential that OTC forex participants seek professional help to discuss possible operational and regulatory contingency plans.

Elimination of OTC Metals

As for OTC precious metals such as gold or silver, Section 742(a) of the Act prohibits any person [which again includes companies]from entering into, or offering to enter into, a transaction in any commodity with a person that is not an eligible contract participant or an eligible commercial entity, on a leveraged or margined basis. This provision intends to expand the narrow so called “Zelener fix” in the Farm Bill previously ratified by congress in 2008. The Farm Bill empowered the CFTC to pursue anti-fraud actions involving rolling spot transactions and/or other leveraged forex transactions without the need to prove that they are futures contracts. The Dodd-Frank Act now expands this authority to include virtually all retail cash commodity market products that involve leverage or margin – in other words OTC precious metals.

The prohibition of Section 742(a) does not apply, however, if such a transaction results in actual delivery within 28 days, or creates an enforceable obligation to deliver between a seller and a buyer that have the ability to deliver, and accept delivery of, the commodity in connection with their lines of business. This may be problematic as in most spot metals trading virtually all contracts fail to meet these requirements. As a result, although the courts’ interpretation of Section 742(a) is unknown, Section 742(a) is likely to have a significantly negative impact on the OTC cash precious metals industry. Here too, it is essential that those who offer to be a counterparty to OTC metals transactions seek professional help to discuss possible operational and regulatory contingency plans.

Small Pool Exemption Eliminated

Pursuant to Section 403 of Act, the “privateadviser” exemption, namelySection 203(b)(3) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (“Advisers Act”), will be eliminated within one year of the Act’s effective date (July 21, 2011). Historically, many unregistered U.S. fund managers had relied on this exemption to avoid registration where they:

(1) had fewer than 15 clients in the past 12 months;

(2) do not hold themselves out generally to the public as investment advisers; and

(3) do not act as investment advisers to a registered investment company or business development company.

At present, advisers can treat the unregistered funds that they advise, rather than the investors in those funds, as their clients for purposes of this exemption. A common practice has thus evolved whereby certain advisers manage up to 14 unregistered funds without having to register under the Advisers Act. Accordingly, the removal of this exemption represents a significant shift in the regulatory landscape, as this practice will no longer be allowable in approximately one year.

Also an important consideration, the Dodd-Frank Act mandates new federal registration and regulation thresholds based on the amount of assets a manager has under management (“AUM”). Although not yet underway, it is possible that various states may enact legislation designed to create a similar registration framework for managers whose AUM fall beneath the new federal levels.

Accredited Investor Qualifications

Section 413(a) of the Act alters the financial qualifications of who can be considered an accredited investor, and thus a qualified as eligible participant (“QEP”). Specifically, the revised accredited investor standard includes only the following types of individuals:

1) A natural person whose individual net worth, or joint net worth with spouse, is at least $1,000,000, excluding the value of such investor’s primary residence;

2) A natural person who had individual income in excess of $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of those years and a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year; or

3) A director, executive officer, or general partner of the issuer of the securities being offered or sold, or a director, executive officer, or general partner of a general partner of that issuer.

Based on this language, it is important to note that the revised accredited investor standard only applies to new investors and does not cover existing investors. However, additional subscriptions from existing investors are generally treated as requiring confirmation of continuing investor eligibility.

On July 27th, 2010, the SEC provided additional clarity regarding the valuation of an individual’s primary residence when calculating net worth. In particular, the SEC has interpreted this provision as follows:

Section 413(a) of the Dodd-Frank Act does not define the term “value,” nor does it address the treatment of mortgage and other indebtedness secured by the residence for purposes of the net worth calculation…Pending implementation of the changes to the Commission’s rules required by the Act, the related amount of indebtedness secured by the primary residence up to its fair market value may also be excluded. Indebtedness secured by the residence in excess of the value of the home should be considered a liability and deducted from the investor’s net worth.

Read the entire article HERE.

By Richard Mills
05/19/2011
FINANCIAL SENSE

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information

Pure gold deposits are increasingly difficult to find.

“What really bothers me is that in the 1980s or 1990s, we saw three to five discoveries of 5 to 20 million ounces each, and upwards of 30 to 50 million ounces a year. That is what makes or breaks the industry. There are no discoveries of that magnitude now.” Pierre Lassonde, veteran gold analyst, co-founder/chairman of Franco Nevada Mining Corp., former president of Newmont Mining Corp.

Each year the mining industry must come up with a major new gold discovery of five million ounces just to replace what one of the world’s top gold miner’s digs up. Because large pure gold deposits are so hard to find – the low hanging fruit has already been picked – gold miners are turning to deposits that contain other metals like copper.

“In the case of gold, the world is currently mining it faster than it is finding it. Furthermore the average size and grade of gold discoveries continues to decline.” Richard Schodde, Managing Director of MinEx Consulting

Mining is the story of depleting assets, that asset must be constantly replenished; miners that want to stay in business must replace every oz taken out of the ground and there isn’t a lot of the larger size gold deposits left to find or buy that would really affect most of these larger company’s bottom lines. Replacing what they’ve mined let alone finding more productivity/resources is getting harder and harder.

“It’s not a bad time to diversify if you are a gold miner. There are lots of reasons to be bullish on gold, at the same time copper has a stronger long-term outlook. Over the next five years I am by and large bullish and wouldn’t be surprised if copper saw an upper range between $10,000 to $12,000.” William Adams, analyst at FastMarkets.com

Porphyry Copper/Gold Deposits

Porphyry copper/gold targets are becoming increasingly important in the global quest to replace declining copper and gold production. These kinds of deposits yield about two-thirds of the world’s copper and are therefore the world’s most important type of copper deposit.

Porphyry copper deposits are copper orebodies which are associated with porphyritic intrusive rocks and the fluids that accompany them. Porphyry orebodies typically contain between 0.4 and 1 % copper with smaller amounts of other metals such as molybdenum, silver and gold.

There are two factors that make these kinds of deposits so attractive to the world’s major mining companies – firstly by focusing on profitability and mine life instead of solely on grade your other inputs of scale/cost can offset the lower grade and this results in almost identical gross margins between high and low grade deposits. Low grade can mean big profits for mining companies – Copper/gold porphyries offer both size and profitability.

The second factor affecting profitability of these often immense deposits is the presence of more than one payable metal ie for gold miners using co-product (copper) accounting the cost of gold production is usually way below the industry average.

So not only are the traditional miners of these scarce and often immense ore bodies in competition for them but increasingly yesterday’s gold only miners are becoming interested as well. These kinds of deposits are one of the few deposit types containing gold that have both the scale and the potential for decent economics that a major gold mining company can feel comfortable going after to replace and add to their gold reserves.

The Vancouver Sun newspaper said high copper demand combined with limited new supplies have made copper the new gold as far as profit margins are concerned.

Copper boasts a higher profit margin than gold – at US$4.29 (U.S.) per pound copper has a 68-per-cent profit margin over industry average break even costs, compared with gold’s 52 per cent.

“As 2011 unfolds, we expect copper to touch $5, yielding an extraordinary 70 per cent profit margin over average world break-even costs including depreciation.” Patricia Mohr Scotiabank economist

Supply and Demand

Copper is supported by:

The growth in demand from Africa, China, India and other emerging markets

Global infrastructure deficit

A low interest rate environment bodes well for the whole resource sector

The overall weakness in the U.S. dollar translates into support for dollar denominated metal prices

In the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index report for April Mohr said “Copper could still retest the previous US$4.60 record of February 14. Chinese copper fabricators destocked copper and produced 2.1% fewer copper semis in January and February due to credit restrictions and high prices. However a big seasonal pick-up in consumption in the second quarter will lift prices.”

“We see renewed strength in the second half and you’ve got to be bullish copper for the next few years. The global recovery is becoming more broad-based and you’re not going to see any new mines coming on stream for at least this year.” Christin Tuxen, analyst at Danske Bank A/S

Australian equity research firm Resource Capital Research (RCR) said it expects the copper market to move from a small surplus in 2010 to a deficit of around 400,000 tonnes by 2011.

According to JPMorgan Securities Ltd, the world refined copper market will have a 500,000-metric-ton deficit in 2011.

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s largest mining company, said in January that output from their Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine, would drop by as much as 10 percent in the year ending in June because of lower ore grades.

Codelco, based in Santiago and the world’s largest copper producer, said on March 25 that supply from its mines fell for the fifth time in six years.

London based Anglo American Plc and Kazakhmys Plc reported lower output this year.

Michael Jansen, metals strategist at JPMorgan Securities Ltd, predicts a deficit of 500,000 tons to 600,000 tons this year.

Macquarie expects a shortfall of 550,000 tons.

Morgan Stanley projects copper prices will average $4.45 a pound in 2011, up 24 percent from an earlier estimate.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd expects copper to average $4.57 a pound this year, up 12.5 percent from a previous estimate.

European copper producer Aurubis said that the global economy continues to recover, according to the IMF, and should achieve a growth rate of 4.4% in 2011 followed by 4.5% in 2012. This indicates sustainably high copper demand that cannot even be harmed by China’s restrictive interest rate policy or the economic weakness of certain countries.

The market will see a wider deficit because of steady demand growth in emerging markets, including China and Brazil, a gradual economic recovery in the US and Europe and tight mine supplies. This year’s deficit will be the most since 2004, according to company data. Hidenori Kamoo, general manager of the marketing department at Pan Pacific Copper Co

Tom Albanese, CEO Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second largest mining company, said that the industry has struggled to maintain supply because of declining ore grades, delays to mine expansions and disruption from strikes.

Ore grades averaged 0.76 percent copper content in 2009, compared with 0.9 percent in 2002. CRU, a London based research company.

Chile mined 6.6 percent less copper in February than a year earlier, the fifth decline in the last six months. National Statistics Institute

“There are still reasons to be bullish on copper into next year. The market is still going to be tight.” David Wilson, analyst Societe Generale SA

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, said in January that it would produce less metal than forecast this year.

Barclays Capital says copper demand growth will slow to 4.1 percent this year, down from 9.6 percent in 2010 – still more than twice the anticipated 1.7 percent expansion in supply. Barclays forecasts an 889,000 ton shortfall for 2011.

“We’re still seeing an incredibly tight market. China has to buy copper. They can’t find substitutes.” Kevin Norrish, managing director, Barclays Capital

RBS forecast average prices between $10,000 and $11,500 in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

Barclays Capital saw copper trading on average at $12,000 in 2012.

StanChart’s Zhu saw prices at just under $12,000 in 2014.

Christine Meilton, chief consultant at CRU Group said there was a risk some copper projects, expected to come on stream in 2012 and 2013, will be delayed because of red tape, poor infrastructure and funding difficulties.

“We suggest the upcoming summer period could be a very exciting time for LME copper prices. The market is positioning for declining LME copper inventories during the June-July-August period. In response, we believe copper prices should move higher.” John Redstone, analyst Desjardins Securities Inc.

Redstone is maintaining his average copper price forecast of $4.50 per pound in 2011 and $5 in 2012.

Urbanization

“For at least the next three years we are still very bullish on copper as the market will remain in deficit over that period, even under the most conservative global demand forecasts, and there is a possibility that this deficit could be more prolonged if demand grows faster than expectations. Copper is highly exposed to Asia, and urbanization in China and India will provide upside momentum for at least the next 10 years and perhaps as long as 20 years.” Judy Zhu, analyst Standard Chartered Bank

Urbanization is a macro-trend, in 1800 two percent of the global population was urban, by 1950 it was 30%. The UN projects that by the year 2030 there will be 1.5 billion more people living in cities. China has one fifth of the world’s population, India has another 1.2 billion people and Africa adds another billion. China and India consume a lot of copper, so increasingly will Africa.

Urbanization and the accompanying necessary infrastructure build out – power, construction, energy and transportation – needed to accomplish developing countries urbanization/industrialization plans are obviously key drivers in increased copper consumption.
Infrastructure Deficit

Equally as important is the fact we have a global crisis in existing infrastructure. The demand this crisis is going to place on copper might very well be more than the demand coming from developing countries to build new infrastructure.

The amount of money, commodities and effort required is going to be massive:
The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) estimated, in 2005, US infrastructure investment needed to be $1.6 trillion dollars over the following five years
European Union Energy Sector alone requires – $1.2T over 20 years

In a 2007 report, Booz Allen Hamilton estimated that investment needed to “modernize obsolescent systems and meet expanding demand” for infrastructure worldwide between 2005 and 2030 was about US$ 41 trillion.

Infrastructure spending by sector:

Water and wastewater $22.6 trillion
Power $9.0 trillion
Road and rail $7.8 trillion
Airports/seaports $1.6 trillion

Infrastructure spending geographically:

Middle East $0.9 trillion
Africa $1.1 trillion
US/Canada $6.5 trillion
South America/Latin America $7.4 trillion
Europe $9.1 trillion
Asia/Oceania $15.8 trillion

In January of 2009 CIBC World Markets issued a study that said a sharp deterioration in existing infrastructure could lead to as much as $35 trillion in public works spending over the next 20 years.

Infrastructure spending geographically:

North America $180 billion/year
Europe $205 billion/year
Asia $400 billion/year
Africa $10 billion/year

The World Economic Forum’s report, Positive Infrastructure, released in May 2010 finds that the world faces a global physical, hard asset, infrastructure deficit of US$ 2 trillion per year over the next 20 years.

In 2009 the ASCE updated their 2005 report on US infrastructure – no area rates higher than a C+. Roads, aviation, and transit declined in score while dams, schools, drinking water, and wastewater held at D or lower. One category, energy, improved, from a D to a D+. Below are the 2009 grades and new spending requirement:

Aviation D
Bridges C
Dams D
Drinking Water D-
Energy D+
Hazardous Waste D
Inland Waterways D-
Levees D-
Public Parks and Recreation C-
Rail C-
Roads D-
Schools D
Solid Waste C+
Transit D
Wastewater D-
America’s Infrastructure GPA: D
Estimated 5 Year Investment: $2.2 Trillion

The 2009 fiscal stimulus package – the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) – included $72 billion for infrastructure upgrades – enough to cover six percent of the 5 year infrastructure deficit estimated by the ASCE. Half a percentage point in maintenance cost will cut the life span of an infrastructure asset by 10 years.

Electrical Grid

ASCE’s Report Card for America’s Infrastructure gives the US Electric Grid a rating of D, its summary:

“The U.S. power transmission system is in urgent need of modernization. Growth in electricity demand and investment in new power plants has not been matched by investment in new transmission facilities. Maintenance expenditures have decreased 1% per year since 1992. Existing transmission facilities were not designed for the current level of demand, resulting in an increased number of “bottlenecks,” which increase costs to consumers and elevate the risk of blackouts.”

“Our grids today are more stressed than they have been in the past three decades. If we don’t expand our capacity to keep up with an increase in demand of 40 percent over the next 25 years, we’re going to see healthy grids become increasingly less reliable.” Today, with the grid operating flat-out, any disruption—like the downed transmission line that sparked the 2003 blackout in the Northeast—can cripple the network.” Kevin Kolevar, assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability at the Department of Energy

April 15th 2011 the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said “global growth in copper demand for 2011 is expected to exceed global growth in copper production and the annual production deficit, estimated at about 250,000 metric tons of refined copper in 2010, is expected to be about 380,000 t in 2011. In 2012, refined usage is again expected to increase in all major world markets, with global demand expected to rise by more than 4%.”

The ICSG does not forecast copper production catching up with demand anytime soon, certainly not in 2011 or 2012.

“The global economy is running a major infrastructure deficit as the cost of decades of under-investment is now surfacing.” Benjamin Tal, analyst CIBC World Markets
High Speed Rail (HSR)

To attract new businesses to our shores, we need the fastest, most reliable ways to move people, goods, and information — from high-speed rail to high-speed internet. Excerpt from US President Obama’s recent State of the Union address

Obama is calling for eighty percent of Americans to have access to high speed rail by 2036 – currently no American has access to high speed rail.

A projection from rail proponents FourBillion.com indicates that building the 9,000 miles of high speed corridors identified by the U.S. Department of Transportation would:

Create 4.5 million permanent jobs and 1.6 million construction jobs
Save 125 million barrels of oil
Eliminate 20 million pounds of CO2 per mile per year
Reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing
Generate $23 billion in economic benefits in the US Midwest alone

These new lines also require massive support infrastructure: stations, metro transport links in cities and modern signaling/safety systems.

Copper is the key to the increased speed of modern high speed trains. Today’s high speed trains do not have a motor located in the locomotive, instead they use a series of motors and transformers located under the length of the train. New high-speed trains with their electric traction engines use from 3 to 4 tonnes of copper per train.

An additional 10 tonnes is used in the power (catenary system – overhead cable made of copper or copper-alloy that is suspended horizontally above the track and supplies the trains electricity) and communications cables per kilometer of track.

China’s already found an area where it could rapidly increase public investment to stimulate growth – rail construction.

China’s total investment in high speed rail was first reported to be about US$300 billion – the Chinese planned a 12,000km high speed passenger network supplemented by 20,000km of mixed traffic lines capable of 200-250kph.

Recent reports indicate that over US$600 billion will be spent on rail construction during the 2011-2015 Five Year Plan. By 2020 there would be at least 16,000 km of passenger dedicated high speed rail. The total rail network by 2020 would be 120,000 km – 80% of it electrified.

By early fall 2010, the Ministry of Railways announced that China had more than doubled the length of high speed track to over 7000km.

China has plans to construct its high speed rail line through Asia and Eastern Europe in order to connect to the existing infrastructure in the European Union (EU). Additional rail lines are planned into South East Asia as well as Russia – this will likely be the largest infrastructure project in history.

The project will include three major high speed lines:
UK/Europe to Beijing (8,100 km) and then extend south to Singapore
A second line will connect into Vietnam, Thailand, Burma and Malaysia
The third line will connect Germany to Russia, cross Siberia and then back into China

Financing and planning for this monumental project is being provided by China – who is already in negotiations with 17 countries to develop the project. In return the partnering nation will provide natural resources to China.

“We will use government money and bank loans, but the railways may also raise financing from the private sector and also from the host countries. We would actually prefer the other countries to pay in natural resources rather than make their own capital investment.” Wang Mengshu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a senior consultant on China’s domestic high-speed rail project.

The exact route of the three lines has yet to be decided, but construction for the South East Asian line had already begun in the Chinese southern province of Yunnan and Burma is about to begin building its link. China offered to bankroll the Burmese line in exchange for the country’s rich reserves of lithium, a metal widely used in batteries.

Russia and China have announced plans to build a new trans-Siberian link. Iran, Pakistan, and India are each negotiating with China to build domestic rail lines that would link into the overall transcontinental system.

China has mastered the art of building high speed rail lines quickly and inexpensively. “These guys are engineering driven — they know how to build fast, build cheaply and do a good job.” John Scales, the lead transport specialist in the Beijing office of the World Bank.

China hopes to complete this massive infrastructure project within 10 years.
Conclusion

Major infrastructure projects typically boost productivity throughout the economy. Massive stimulus packages that focus on creating jobs at home – through public works projects – will, in this authors opinion, become very popular with governments looking to generate massive employment and restart the global economy.

Interest in the junior mining space is going to become intense but there is still time for investors to capitalize on the coming infrastructure boom.

Are junior resource companies, run by quality management teams with outstanding projects, on your radar screen?

If not maybe they should be.

Read the entire article HERE.

May 9, 2011
Avery Goodman
SeekingAlpha

As we warned our readers on May 1, 2011, when silver had clawed its way back to about $48 per ounce: “We expect another massive price attack in the next few days.”

We came to this conclusion based upon a number of factors, including the impending opening of the Hong Kong Merchantile Exchange, which will be controlled by many of the same international players who control NYMEX. Like clockwork, a vicious attack, perhaps the most ferocious one ever mounted in the history of precious metals, began on Monday, May 2, 2011. We knew it was coming, but to be honest, we didn’t expect the level of ferocity. Following our own suggestions, when silver had tanked by about 18%, we entered into a small speculative long position, using the SIVR silver trust. The price punched right through the minor support level we had chosen, and continued down.

Had we realized the depth of the silver short seller despair, we would have played the game a bit differently. We would have waited longer, bought a lot more later on, and created a much longer term position. As it is, we have lost nearly nothing, and will do it anyway. Nevertheless, as irrational as this kind of thinking is, and as much as we warn people against it, human beings are human beings and we are not happy about putting on a little bet, no matter how small, that fails to catch the bottom of a dip.

The level of despair among short sellers, which is motivating this attack, is growing. Anything could happen at this point. They could give up entirely, or the attack could become more ferocious. We don’t know. What we do know is that the short sellers’ predicament has just grown worse. They will eventually become even more desperate than they are now as weeks and months pass by. We will explain why shortly.

New and ever larger performance bond deposit requirements are being announced by the NYMEX so-called “clearing house risk committee” (performance bond committee) almost every other day. On top of these substantial increases, the individual clearing members are often making even bigger demands and hiking up performance bond requirements even higher.

We cannot help but wonder if some of these clearing members are themselves short silver, or if they are deathly afraid that other clearing members will default, leaving them footing the bill? Or are they trying to help attack their own customers? To the extent that a clearing member is raising performance bonds above the level of the exchange, customers should say goodbye and never do business with them again.

According the official spokesperson for CME Group, which owns NYMEX, the performance bond increases are designed to address “increased risk”. If this were so, however, such changes would apply only to short sellers and new long buyers who purchased up in the higher price ranges. Most of the older long buyers were sitting on huge profits from the upward movement of silver, when the new bond requirements were imposed in the $49 range. They posed no greater risk at all than they did back when they made their purchases at $18, $20, $25 per ounce, etc.

But the exchange and its dealers don’t play the game that way. Instead, they apply these changes to everyone, even people who may have bought when silver was down near $18 per ounce, even though these older position holders pose no greater risk of defaulting than before. The exchange committee members are quite expert at all this, and are well aware that the net effect of what they were doing would be to throw people involuntarily out of positions. The effect is carefully calculated and thought out, and is part of the overall process used to artificially control silver prices.

Coupled with the sudden increased performance in bonds, there has been an all-out media effort to convince people that a “bubble is bursting” even though, as we will shortly explain, anyone who is worth his salt as an analyst knows it isn’t true. There has NEVER been any bubble in silver in 2011, and therefore, it cannot possibly “burst”. There has simply been an unwinding of a grossly underpriced asset that has been subject to a multi-year price suppression effort.

Be that as it may, this downturn provides, for the first time in a long time, more than mere gambling opportunities. Highly leveraged and undercapitalized speculators have been kicked out of their positions, and they had pushed the price of silver up very fast. It would have gone to the same levels, anyway, and beyond, but the process would have been slower and steadier if the market had been limited to cash buyers and well-capitalized investors.

We have been carefully observing the methods used in this attack and have reached some conclusions. The attack is not sophisticated. It is NOT rocket science. The method is so simple that it is astounding that so few people see it for what it is. Regulators could put an end to it any time they want to. They simply don’t want to. That means, of course, that they are essentially complicit. There are genuine folks over at CFTC, like Commissioner Bart Chilton, but they are operating at an agency which is structurally corrupted, with a revolving door swapping employees to and from the regulator and those who are supposed to be regulated.

The current price attack involves an overwhelming creation of transient short positions that last less than one day. This is expensive to do in terms of upfront cash. But it isn’t quite as expensive as it may seem at first glance. Each day, except on Friday, May 6th, more than 10,000 short positions appeared to be transiently created, closed and recreated during the trading day. This must have required posting at least $180 million in performance bonds. However, to give credit to the ingenuity of the manipulators, most cash is recouped by the end of the trading day. With access to Federal Reserve loan windows, putting up an infinite amount of upfront fiat cash in the morning of a trading day is no deterrent.

From what we can see, this is what they are doing, in a highly coordinated fashion:

1) Either using control over the exchange committee system to induce sudden hikes in performance bond requirements, or opportunistically using such hikes. The hikes soften up the market by causing an initial destabilization of accounts of overleveraged long position holders. Some of the big clearing members of NYMEX have enhanced this effect by raising their own requirements higher than the exchange committee, and thereby softening up their own customers more substantially;

2) Using analysts to make extensive commentary to the mass media to the effect that the “silver bubble has burst” in the hope of inducing fear in the marketplace, further softening it up, in preparation for step 3.

3) Using trading “bots” to transiently create thousands and, sometimes, tens of thousands of intra-day short positions, designed to soak up opportunistic buying by better capitalized long side oriented investors. The flooding of the market with this paper supply of imaginary “silver” prevents futures based prices from rising and triggers stop-loss orders among leveraged customers.

4) Closing most intra-day positions into the mass of involuntary liquidations. Sometimes, “artillery” is left on the battlefield by the close of the day. This happens when transient short positions cannot be fully unloaded. In other words, the bots are competing with heavy buying from well-capitalized buyers who now want to pay the “bargain” prices created by the bots, and taking over those positions before the bots have the opportunity to buy them back. This shows up as a net increase in the “open interest” in silver, even as the price is falling. That aberrant result is impossible if a bubble were really “bursting”, because we would have run out of such buyers by now;

5) Rinsing and repeating the same process the next day, and on various days after that, allowing for a few “up” days centered around points of natural technical support, in order to preserve plausible deniability.

Again, CME officials claim that the sudden margin changes are motivated by “high volatility”, and that their actions are not a cause for the recent crash of silver prices. That is disingenuous at best. The changes are not “motivated” by high volatility — they are the initial cause of the volatility. They knowingly destabilized the accounts of highly leveraged buyers. Those buyers were highly leveraged because the exchange previously encouraged high leverage by marking down performance bond requirements. Sudden upward adjustment of performance bonds creates an opening for trading “bots” to move in, and helps make the manipulation less costly.

If performance bonds were never set in the first place, at ridiculous ultra-low levels, then suddenly raised, then suddenly lowered, over and over again – which is exactly what the exchange has done for years – prices would be stable. Substantial performance bonds, kept the same at ALL times, would mean no “pie-in-the-sky” undercapitalized long buyers drawn into the market. The ability of the manipulators to flush them out, collect their performance bonds, and periodically crash commodity prices would end.

In that scenario, silver and gold would transform back to their 10,000 year old role as the most stable stores of value that exist, and conservative investors would convert their fiat cash, stocks and bonds into precious metals. That is a nightmare scenario for western central bankers, because it is a severe threat to the long term profits of the commercial casino-banks they service, whose tight control over the world economy facilitates the sale of derivatives and control over the contingencies that trigger such derivatives. This tight control cannot exist in an honest money gold/silver base monetary system, and is based primarily upon control of paper and electronic money printing presses

But, in spite of the incredible power of the central banks standing behind them, short sellers are losing this war. Their surface “success” is an illusion. Instead of escaping from liability, their liability is growing. In spite of the propaganda machine, the attack by clearing members against their own customers, and the trading bots, buying interest has remained incredibly high. This is exemplified by the fact that not all of the tens of thousands of transient intra-day short contracts have been closed by the end of the trading day. That is NOT a sign of a bursting bubble but, rather, of just the opposite.

In a normal market, the cost of a relatively fixed supply of goods will always result in rising prices when the number of purchase contracts rise. This is because demand has increased while supply has stayed roughly the same. But, not in our corrupted futures markets. On Tuesday, May 3, 2011, CME Group records show that the silver bars underlying 23 contracts were delivered. That should have reduced “open interest” contracts by 23. Instead, there was a net INCREASE that day of “same-month” positions by 10 contracts. In other words, short sellers will now need to deliver 165,000 additional ounces of silver this month.

On Friday, May 6, 2011, the short sellers must have been proud of themselves. They were able to deliver 243 contracts, or 1.2 million ounces of silver, which is a huge amount. But, the open interest for May delivery only declined by 13 contracts, which means that the artificially cheap prices attracted 230 new long contract buyers who paid cash. The new contracts will need to be delivered this month. As hard as it must have been to find the silver for May 6th delivery, they are now forced to find another 1.15 million ounces somewhere.

The so-called “spot” price is now largely irrelevant, but short sellers have still not acknowledged that fact to themselves. Intense physical silver demand continues. This is amply illustrated by continued backwardation. Dealers at COMEX and the LBMA may create fake prices at will, but the cash market is their achilles’ heel. Short sellers have put paper silver on a fire sale at the futures exchanges. Yet they have not improved their position by doing so. They have, instead, insured a worse problem. Cash buyers put the fear of God in the hearts of silver manipulators. Cash buyers can put them into bankruptcy, destroy their power over the market, and discredit the futures markets, LBMA and the central bankers by inducing multiple defaults.

New “urban” myths about mysterious eastern billionaires buying up silver have spread quickly. On April 28, 2011, silver was selling for a high of $49 per ounce. The open interest had fallen to as low as 129,711 as short sellers slowly capitulated, and serious cash buyers took the bait. Allowing higher and higher fiat prices was effective in allowing open short positions to be closed, which is what short sellers must do before it is too late. On one day, for example, in early Asian trading, prices rose temporarily by over 10%. Asian short sellers were breaking ranks and buying back positions at any price. Then the bull-headed spirit of their European and American comrades awoke, and the current attack on silver prices began.

The market is NOT becoming dispirited or shell-shocked, as would have once been the case under similar conditions. Instead, we are seeing heavy buying by well capitalized long buyers who have probably read Andrew McGuire’s emails. They now know the score. They know that this is simply a manipulation event. As of May 5, 2011, the open interest had already risen to 134,804. The evil “Empire” is facing 5,093 new long positions. Two hundred sixty six of those are “same-month” positions, bought with a 100% cash, and need to be delivered this month.

Tens of thousands of other positions have changed hands. The trading “bots” managed to close most of their intra-day shorts into margin calls and stop loss orders, but have not accomplished much in terms of the level of open interest. Tens of thousands of existing contracts plus 5,093 additional hard long positions were unintentionally created by the trading bots, and all of these are now transferred from undercapitalized longs who would never have taken delivery, into much stronger hands.

The percentage of contracts, going forward, that will be forced into delivery as the months pass, will rise as a result of the transfer from weak to strong hands, and the silver short sellers’ problem is now bigger. New buyers have streamed in and bought at lower prices. That is the natural response of any bull market to a major manipulation event like this one. Silver is in a secular bull market. That has not changed as a result of a manipulation event. In fact, nothing has changed, except the unfavorable position of the silver short side manipulators, who are facing a much worse picture now than they did before they started this manipulation.

They have collected performance bond “candy” from undercapitalized investment “babies”. But, they need much more. Short sellers need to create the type of dispirited shell-shocked market they managed to create in late 2008. The effort, back then, made use of the demise of Lehman Brothers to offload hundreds of billions of dollars worth of short positions in all the precious metals in the OTC derivatives market. So far, however, this manipulation event isn’t working very well. The only way to bring the number of positions down is to allow the price to rise substantially.

If they abandon the effort now, as Friday’s action implies they might, it will be impossible for them to shift their short term price reduction into a longer term situation of altered market perceptions, which is their end goal. The Federal Reserve can give them as much cash as they need to mount as many paper-based attacks as they want, but it can’t give them physical silver. Short sellers will need to “put up” or “shut up”. They need to pay the price for their misconduct over many years.

Short sellers have proven to be so bull-headed that one has to doubt whether they will do the smart thing. The next move might be to flood physical markets with newly “cashed out” baskets of silver bars from the SLV silver trust stockpile. That might dampen pressure from increasing demand, and might even meet the immediate need for physical delivery in the OTC cash markets. Over the long run, however, assuming that the price remains discounted, the bars will quickly disappear and as they raid the stockpile, others will buy SLV shares and also raid the stockpile. SLV may end up stripped of its silver.

Does SLV really have the full amount of silver claimed? It does have a solid-seeming inspection report that says it does. If it doesn’t, we may be finding out soon enough. If those who have been dismissed as paranoid people end up being right, and there is not enough silver in the stockpile to cover claims, jail cells will be waiting. The CME Group clearing house risk committee can raise performance bonds to 100% of the amount that long buyers paid for their positions in silver. They can even raise it higher than that, but only at the risk of jail cells, and/or triple damages that cannot be discharged in bankruptcy for its individual members. Meanwhile, manipulators can continue to flood the market with bidding-bots and intra-day transient short positions. They can theoretically absorb all the buying pressure if they are stubborn enough.

They can continue to raid the SLV stockpile to make deliveries, and spin those withdrawals to the media as the “public getting out of silver”. But this is not 1980. No one remotely similar to Nelson Bunker Hunt is relying on bank financing to corner the silver market using leveraged positioning. Price pressure is from the cash physical market, not derivatives. COMEX is relatively irrelevant. Nothing the manipulators can do in derivatives markets will relieve the physical market pressure.

Short sellers have replaced weak hands with strong ones who are much more likely to take delivery. This manipulation episode will dramatically unwind, just as it dramatically began, when silver short sellers capitulate, as they must. Prices will shoot far beyond the recent high levels. “Bottom picking”, therefore, may be nice but it isn’t absolutely necessary. The prospective price appreciation over the next few months or years should overwhelm any differences in price right now. It won’t matter whether you bought at $50, $40, $35, $20 etc. In a few months, the price will likely be back up, and, in a few years, the price will be many multiples of all those numbers.

Technical support levels still have meaning because manipulators want it to be so. Cash fueled trading “bots”, filled to the brim with Federal Reserve funny money, can be programmed to open as many transient intra-day short positions as needed to punch right through any support levels. But manipulators must preserve an illusion of natural market movement. We can expect loose adherence to chart patterns, allowing bounces where appropriate, and then, punch-throughs.

The only way a psychologically depressed market could now be achieved is by crash prices beneath the long-term trend line, which is around $22.50 per ounce. This would require hundreds of millions of additional trading bot dollars to do. They might try it, at some point, but more likely, they will give up for the moment and return to a slow capitulation. Even if they do push prices down below $22.50, we doubt it would work for very long. Such a battering would cause heavy technical damage, but as noted, this market is not being driven by technical trends.

If they don’t achieve the sub-$22.50 level, even most technical analysts relied upon by the big non-manipulation-involved hedge funds and other big players will assume that the silver bull market is still running and that this is merely a deep correction. They will buy back in and run the price back up. In other words, if the manipulators do not achieve a sustainable self-perpetuating shell-shocked market, as was achieved in late 2008, the manipulators will not be able to close short positions without great losses.

It may be possible to use technical analysis to make intra-day, or multi-day gambles on bounces. We would not feel comfortable, however, with recommending that this be done with substantial capital, because the manipulators could suddenly attack again at any time. If they decide to punch through the strong technical support level at $33-34, they will do so with everything they’ve got. They will need to take down the price very quickly because they need to get it done before so much of the month has passed that they will be impaired in their ability to gather silver to make delivery in the OTC market.

You must think long term now before entering this silver market, because you may well get stuck with a silver position for a longer term than you may expect. But if the manipulators do press the price down below the $22.50 level, you should buy with every dollar you have available, because even though things will look bleak by then, with every media outlet heralding the “bursting of the silver bubble”, a few months later, the price will be back to way above $50 again. Prefacing the big fall will probably be a huge technical rally in the U.S. dollar, and a big fall in the stock market. These events may not happen until the end of QE-2 in late June.

On the other hand, if you don’t buy now, and, instead rely on the forlorn hope that manipulators will push hard enough to take prices into $20-22 level, you may well lose the excellent opportunities that now exist. There is no way to know, in a manipulated market, whether the manipulators will decide to punch through a particular support level. As we have stated in previous articles, the better way to deal with this is to pick a reasonable price level acceptable to your pocketbook, put in a buy order, and wait. If your buy order is successful, and the price turns up immediately, great. If not, be secure in knowing that you have a long term view, and a position in an asset destined for much more appreciation than we’ve ever seen before, over the next few years.

In short, it is time to stop thinking about short term gambling, because no metric you use is safe against the depredations of a manipulation that regulators refuse to stop. Buy with the long term in mind and wait for the market to punish the manipulators, which it will. Take physical delivery if you buy at the futures markets. Remember, the primary value of precious metals is NOT in making “big money” from gambling in the banker-controlled gambling casinos. We have always strongly suggested that only very small gambles like those you would make in Las Vegas should be made on a speculative basis. But buying on big dips, like this one, is not a speculative undertaking. It is long-term investing. The long term power of silver, like gold and platinum, is to preserve the buying power you’ve worked for all your life.

The powers-that-be want the U.S. dollar and all other paper fiat currencies to lose value every year. In fact, 2% inflation is their openly stated goal. If you consider compounding, that is an inflation rate that destroys the value of money very rapidly. But the true inflation rate in America is already closer to 6%, not anywhere near the low official numbers that the government likes to report to the media. With a huge increase in the amount of circulating funny-money liquidity around the world, including but not limited to the U.S. dollar, inflation is likely to rise much more sharply from here forward all over the world, not just in the U.S.A. The willingness to tackle this inflation, on the part of policy-makers, is very limited because serious efforts involve a lot of pain to powerful constituencies.

Investing in precious metals means converting U.S. dollars, pounds, euros, etc., into hard “money” that can be manipulated in price, but which cannot be debased. Manipulation has its limits, and since it appears to have been happening in the gold and silver markets for decades, in one form or another, the unwinding that is now beginning will just get more intense with time. No matter what technical support levels they target and take out, the short sellers are not going to extricate themselves without paying big bucks. Knowledge of how the price suppression scheme operates is in the public domain, and it is highly unlikely that manipulators will succeed in shell-shocking markets with their shenanigans, nor suppressing prices, for any significant period of time.

The next step to control prices for several more months will be borrowing enough money from the Fed’s loan windows to keep their trading bots active whenever some type of opportunity presents itself, and to become even more aggressive using control of exchange mechanisms to continue sudden increases in performance bonds. Because SLV shareholders tend to be unaware of the fact that they are dealing in a manipulated market, they continue to buy and sell the trust at whatever the spot price may be manipulated to. Thus, short sellers can use opportunistic futures markets attacks to raid SLV silver stockpiles “on the cheap”.

This should allow them to obtain enough silver to meet physical delivery demands, and even to periodically flood physical markets. Meanwhile, the reduction in the stockpiles will be spun into a claim that the “bubble is bursting” as “big players” “sell” SLV shares. In fact, they are not selling at all but, rather, cashing shares for silver to meet delivery demands. We doubt, for this reason, that the speculations about impending COMEX defaults have any basis in fact.

Silver investors should understand that the ride is going to be a roller coaster, as it always has been. Going forward, the intensity of that thrill ride is likely to increase proportionally to the desperation of short sellers. The biggest threat to silver prices will be the supposed end of QE-2. Short sellers are likely to view it as another opportunity to attack. But July is also a big delivery month in silver, and the delivery demand will be considerably higher than now, as a result of this price attack and the replacement of weak hands with strong ones.

If the manipulators had strong faith that the cessation of QE will save them, they wouldn’t have launched the ongoing attack we are now suffering through. The most likely outcome of the end of quantitative …

Read the entire article HERE.

Karen Roche
The Gold Report
4/29/11

The Gold Report: When the average investor turns on the news, even on financial channels, they hear that the U.S. economy is in the best shape it’s been in for three or four years. While the experts say the recovery is slower than anticipated, they expect its slow recovery will equate to a long, slow growth cycle similar to that after World War II. You have a contrary view.

Doug Casey: The only things that are doing well are the stock and bond markets. But the markets and the economy are totally different things—except, over a very long period of time, there’s no necessary correlation between the economy doing well and the market doing well. My view is that the market is as high as it is right now—with the Dow over 12,000—solely and entirely because the Federal Reserve has created trillions of dollars, as other central banks around the world have created trillions of their currency units. Those currency units have to go somewhere, and a lot of them have gone into the stock market.

As a general rule, I don’t believe in conspiracy theories and I don’t believe anything’s big enough to manipulate the market successfully over a long period. At the same time, the government recognizes that most people conflate the Dow with the economy, so it is directing money toward the market to keep it up. Of course, the government wants to keep it up for other reasons—not just because it thinks the economy rests on the psychology of the people, which is complete nonsense. Psychology is just about the most ephemeral thing on which you could possibly base an economy. It can blow away like a pile of feathers in a hurricane.

TGR: So, you’re saying we’re confusing the market’s performance with the economy’s performance?

DC: Yes. The fact is that the economy, itself, is doing very badly. The numbers are phonied up. I spend a lot of time in Argentina. Anybody with any sense knows you can’t believe the numbers coming out of the Argentinean Government Statistical Bureau, nor can you (any longer) believe the numbers that come out of Washington D.C. The inflation numbers consider only the things the government wants to look at and are artificially low. It’s the same with the unemployment numbers. None of these things is believable.

TGR: Isn’t the unemployment figure a lagging indicator of a rebounding economy?

DC: If you look at the way unemployment was computed until the early 1980s—something that John Williams from ShadowStats does—the numbers would indicate about 20% unemployment today. Besides, even while the population keeps rising, the number of people reported as actually working is level or even lower. Most indicators of the economic establishment, in my view, don’t really make any sense. GDP, for instance, includes government spending—much of which amounts to paying some people to dig ditches during the day and other people to fill in for them at night. So-called “defense” spending is almost totally wasted capital. The practice of economics today is pathetic and laughable.

TGR: So, the economy is not rebounding?

DC: No. My take on this is that we entered what I call the “Greater Depression” in 2007. And now, because the government has printed up trillions of dollars in the last couple of years, we’re in the eye of the hurricane. We’ve only gone through the leading edge of the storm. People think this will just be another cyclical recovery like all the others since WW II. But it’s not. It’s going to wind up with the currency being destroyed. It’s going to be a disaster. . .a worldwide catastrophe.

TGR: You indicated that the government is using these mass infusions of made-up money to prop up the stock market due to the psychological factor—that people will think the economy’s doing well because the market is doing well. However, we hear that a lot of that money has been caught up in the banks. Would you comment on that?

DC: As I said, that money has to go somewhere. The banks have been borrowing from the Fed at something like 0.5% and investing it in government securities at 2%, 3% or 4%, depending on the maturity. So, much of that money has been a direct gift to the banks; and they’re basically making an arbitrage spread of 2%–4%. So, yes, that’s happening with some of the money. Still, it doesn’t all just sit in these Treasury securities. A great deal of it, inevitably, goes into the stock market.

TGR: You also said that psychology isn’t the only reason the government wants to see the stock market go higher.

DC: Right. Pension funds have a great deal of their assets in stocks. Certainly, many funds run by government entities, such as the state and city employee pension funds, are approaching bankruptcy despite the fact that the Fed has driven interest rates to historic lows, artificially pumping up both stocks and bonds. And, I might add, keeping property prices higher than they would be otherwise. When interest rates rise eventually—and they will go up a lot—it’ll be something to behold in the markets.

TGR: You mentioned John Williams who’s in your speaker lineup for the Casey Research Summit, The Next Few Years. Another of your speakers is Stansberry Associates Founder Porter Stansberry, who’s been making two points about the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. One point he makes in his The End of America video concerns the quantitative easing (QE) you mentioned—those trillions of dollars. But Porter also anticipates the U.S. government announcing a devaluation of the currency similar to what England did in 1970. Do you see that type of scenario occurring, as well?

DC: When the U.S. government last officially devalued the dollar in August 1971, it had been fixed to $35 per ounce to gold. In other words, before that, any foreign government could take the dollars it owned and trade them in at the Treasury for gold. Nixon devalued the dollar by raising it to $38/oz., and then to $42/oz. It was completely academic, anyway, because he wouldn’t redeem gold from the Treasury at any price.

But because the dollar isn’t fixed against anything now, the government can’t officially devalue it. It’s a floating market. The government’s going to devalue the dollar by printing more of the damn things and letting them lose value gradually—actually the loss will no longer be gradual, but quite fast from here on out. But it’s not going to do so formally by re-fixing the dollar against some other currency or against gold. I’m not sure Porter’s phrasing it in the best way, but he’s quite correct in his conclusion and his prescriptions as to how to profit from it. At this point, the dollar is nothing more than a floating abstraction, an IOU nothing on the part of a manifestly bankrupt government.

TGR: Another abstraction is the fact that the Treasury says the money it is printing has a multiplier effect when it gets into the U.S. economy, so it can pull those dollars back when the time comes. Is that a viable alternative to offset the devaluation caused by printing more money?

DC: You have to look first at the immediate and direct effects of what the government’s doing, and then at the delayed and indirect effects. And sure, just as it’s injecting all this money into the economy—mainly by the Fed buying U.S. government bonds—theoretically, it can take it out of the economy by doing the opposite. But I just don’t see that happening.

TGR: Why not?

DC: One of the reasons is that the U.S. government, itself, is running annual trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. I think those deficits will go higher—not lower. So, where’s that money going to come from? Where will it get trillions of dollars to fund the U.S. government every year?

China isn’t going to buy this paper and Japan will be selling its U.S. government paper because, if nothing else, it’ll need to buy things to redo the northeast part of the country. Nobody else is going to buy that trillion-dollar deficit either, so it’ll have to be the Federal Reserve. In fact, the Fed will have to buy much more and, therefore, create more money. That’s what happens.

TGR: This currency crisis isn’t unique to the U.S. You just brought up Japan. And aren’t all the European countries doing the same thing?

DC: The U.S., unfortunately, is not unique. This is going to be a worldwide catastrophe. It’s been a disaster for every country that’s done this in the past—Zimbabwe, Germany, Hungary, Yugoslavia and countries in South America—but those were within only those particular countries. In most of those cases, people never trusted their governments; so, they had significant assets outside the country in a form other than the local currency. The problem now is that the U.S. dollar is the world’s currency and all of these central banks own USDs as the backing for their own currencies. All these other countries will wind up finding that they don’t have any assets after all. That’s going to happen all over the world.

TGR: With countries around the globe facing the same issue, should anyone hold currencies?

DC: No. Sure, you need local currency to go to the store and buy a loaf of bread. But for liquid assets you’re trying to save, it’s insane to own currencies at this point because they’re all going to reach their intrinsic value. I’ve been recommending for many years that people buy gold and own gold for their savings—serious capital they want to put aside in liquid form. With gold now over $1,500/oz. and silver at $48, people who followed that advice have made a lot of money. That’s the good news. The bad news is that very few people have done so. Newbies to the game are paying $1,500/oz. for gold. It’s going higher, but it’s no longer the bargain that it was. The important thing to remember, though, is that gold is the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability. That’s why it’s always been used as money and why it’s likely to be reinstituted as money.

TGR: From your viewpoint, how does a person with any wealth preserve it during this tumultuous period other than by investing in gold?

DC: Frankly, I don’t know. I own beef and dairy cattle, which are a good place to be; but that’s a business, and it’s not practical for most people. I think it boils down to gold.

TGR: But what investments should they be looking at these days?

DC: There really aren’t investments anymore. With trillions of newly created currency units floating around the world, things will become very chaotic and unpredictable shortly. It’s very hard to invest using any kind of Graham-and-Dodd methodology when things are that chaotic. Whether you like it or not, you’re going to be forced to be a speculator in the years to come. A speculator is somebody who tries to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace. There wouldn’t be many speculators, or many of those distortions in the marketplace, if we lived in a free-market society. But we don’t.

TGR: So, speculation will supplant value investing?

DC: Well, investing is best defined as allocating capital in a way that it reliably produces more capital. The government is going to make that quite hard in the years to come with much higher taxes, much higher inflation and draconian regulations. You will actually be forced to speculate. That’s a pity, from the point of view of the economy as a whole. But I kind of like it, in a way. Few people know how to be speculators, so I should be able to make a huge amount of money in the next few years. Unfortunately, it’ll be at a time when most people are losing their shirts. But I don’t make the rules. I just play the game.

TGR: As you look over the next year or two with your speculator hat on, what sectors do you expect to experience the most distortion and, therefore, offer the most opportunity for the speculator?

DC: One sure bet is the collapse of the U.S. dollar. Always bet against the USD and you’ll be on the winning side of the trade. A very direct way to make that bet is by shorting long-term U.S. government bonds because, eventually, interest rates will go to the moon, which means bond prices will collapse.

You can also look at the precious metals because, at some point, when people panic into them, their price curves will go parabolic. Mining stocks are likely to draw a lot of money, so they could go wild as they have many times over the last 40 years.

TGR: Your summit has presentations scheduled on silver, gold, currencies, Asia, real estate, agriculture and even more. What do you expect to be the major takeaway this time?

DC: What we’re facing now is something of absolutely historic importance—the biggest thing that’s gone on in the world since the industrial revolution. Many things will be completely overturned in the years to come. What’s happening now in the Arab world, with all of these corrupt kleptocracies being challenged and overthrown, is just the beginning. We haven’t seen the end of this in any of these countries—Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Algeria. Of course, Saudi Arabia will be the big one. Everything’s going to be overturned. And all these stooges that the U.S. government has been supporting for years could very well lose their heads. It’s going to be the most tumultuous decade for hundreds of years, bigger than what happened in the 1930s and 1940s.

TGR: Any last things you’d like to tell our readers?

DC: Yeah. Hold on to your hats. You’re in for a wild ride.

Read the entire article HERE.

by Nick Olivari
Reuters
NEW YORK | Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:34pm EDT

By contrast European Central Bank has raised rates, boosting the euro by 11 percent so far this year.

The U.S. dollar index .DXY hit a three-year low of 72.834 on Friday and has now fallen for five straight months, with April posting a 3.8 percent April decline.

“It’s pretty close to a one-way bet (on the dollar), but in foreign exchange markets, anything can happen,” said Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Commercial Banking in London. “U.S. monetary policy is reflationary policy which is great news for the commodity currencies and frames the weak dollar.”

The euro rose about 4.6 percent against the dollar in April for its best month since September. The dollar fell 2.5 percent this month against the yen, its worst month since December.

On Friday the euro was buoyed by stronger-than-expected euro-zone inflation data that increased the chance of another ECB rate rise. Trading was thinned by a holiday in the U.K. for Britain’s royal wedding.

The euro closed around $1.4816, little changed on the day but still near its highest since early December 2009.

The U.S. Labor Department will publish its April employment report next week, and analysts at Citigroup said dollar bearishness should persist.

“It is hard to be optimistic on the (dollar’s) long-term prospects, given the Fed’s ability to surprise on the dovish side, the ongoing overhang of U.S. dollar assets among reserve managers and the concerns that have emerged on long-term U.S. fiscal prospects,” CitiFX said in a research note.

Overextended speculative positioning suggest the dollar’s decline may slow next week, according to Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

“However, with the Fed sending a strong dovish message, we see few significant triggers for an immediate dollar turnaround,” he said.

The Swiss franc was buoyed by upbeat comments from the Swiss National Bank’s chairman and an above-forecast Swiss sentiment survey.

The Swiss franc rose to hit a record high of 0.86256 francs per dollar on EBS. Speculators remained net long the Swiss franc to the tune of 17,841 contracts, according to CFTC data. The euro ended the week down about 1.0 percent at 1.2820 francs.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.6 percent at 81.07 yen. The net short yen position dropped by 15,986 contracts to 36,997 from 52,983 the week before, according to CFTC data. Most of the shift was from a decline of 14,858 total short contracts to 51,060 contracts.

Euro resistance was expected around $1.4905, the peak in December 7 2009, with a substantial options barrier at $1.5000. Beyond $1.5000, the key target was the 2009 high of $1.5145, analysts said.

One-month euro/dollar risk reversals last traded at -1.3 on Friday, according to Reuters data, with a bias toward euro puts and dollar calls, suggesting more investors are betting the euro will fall than will rise.

But the same measure traded at -1.48 on Tuesday, which indicates relatively less bearishness, the day before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hosted his first-ever post-policy decision news conference.

Still, euro long positions rose to 68,279 contracts in the latest week, the highest since December, 2007, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

(Reporting by Nick Olivari)

Read the entire article HERE.

THIS IS HUGE! If you are wondering where you can make a profit for your gold and silver, APMEX is actually paying YOU an overspot price so you will make a hefty profit for your metals. That is of course if you are willing to part with something that will go up in price. Expect other dealers to do the same as shortages continue.

Mike Piromgraipakd

by Tyler Durden
ZeroHedge
04/25/2011 19:22 -0400

Over the past hour Zero Hedge has been inundated with reader comments notifying us that Ampex has, validating the earlier post speculating about a possible silver shortage at the metals distributor, launched a “reverse ïnquiry” in which it will pay “you $3.00 over the current spot price of Silver for your Silver American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!” and “We will pay you $38.00 over the current spot price of Gold for your Gold American Eagles. ANY year, ANY quantity!” So aside from this first public confirmation that one of the biggest wholesale retailers of precious metals is now inventoryless [sic], we can certainly see why Asia has decided to take silver down in the afterhours electronic session.

Read the original article HERE.